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8:47 | 18.11.2016

Οικονομία

Ευ. Τσακαλώτος στη WSJ: Αναγκαία η συμφωνία για το χρέος για να βγούμε από την κρίση

Ο Ευ. Τσακαλώντος σημειώνει ότι η κωλυσιεργία θα μπορούσε να υπονομεύσει τις ελπίδες της χώρας για ανάκαμψη το 2017 και προσθέτει ότι στις επόμενες εβδομάδες η ευρωζώνη έχει μία σημαντική ευκαιρία για να δείξει ότι μπορεί να διορθώσει και όχι να αποφύγει τα προβλήματά της


 

Σε συνέντευξη που παραχώρησε στην εφημερίδα Wall Street Journal, ο υπουργός Οικονομικών Ευκλείδης Τσακαλώτος προειδοποιεί τη Γερμανία και τους άλλους πιστωτές να συμφωνήσουν τις επόμενες εβδομάδες για την αναδιάρθρωση του ελληνικού χρέους, διαφορετικά θα χαθεί η καλύτερη ευκαιρία που υπάρχει για να μπει τέλος στην επταετή κρίση της χώρας.

Ο κ. Τσακαλώντος σημειώνει ότι η κωλυσιεργία θα μπορούσε να υπονομεύσει τις ελπίδες της χώρας για ανάκαμψη το 2017 και προσθέτει ότι στις επόμενες εβδομάδες η ευρωζώνη έχει μία σημαντική ευκαιρία για να δείξει ότι μπορεί να διορθώσει και όχι να αποφύγει τα προβλήματά της.

«Εάν καθυστερήσουμε αυτή την απόφαση ακόμη περισσότερο και πούμε 'θα αποφασίσουμε σε δύο χρόνια' για το πώς θα καταστήσουμε βιώσιμο το χρέος της Ελλάδας, τότε και οι επενδυτές επίσης θα αναβάλουν τις αποφάσεις τους για επενδύσεις στην Ελλάδα», είπε χαρακτηριστικά ο υπουργός Οικονομικών.

Το να καταστεί το ελληνικό χρέος βιώσιμο θα διευκόλυνε την συμμετοχή της χώρας στο πρόγραμμα αγοράς ομολόγων της ΕΚΤ, βήμα που, όπως πιστεύει ο κ. Τσακαλώτος, θα μπορούσε να γίνει μέχρι τον Μάρτιο του 2017 και να βοηθήσει ώστε να «ξεκλειδώσει» η πολυαναμενόμενη οικονομική ανάκαμψη.

Όπως υπογράμμισε, είναι ζωτικής σημασίας να υπάρξουν γρήγορα ενέργειες. Αν δεν υπάρξει συμφωνία για ελάφρυνση του χρέους τον Δεκέμβριο ή τον Ιανουάριο, τότε η Ελλάδα δεν θα μπορέσει να συμπεριληφθεί στο πρόγραμμα της ΕΚΤ τον Μάρτιο και αυτό θα απέτρεπε την επιστροφή της χώρας στις αγορές αργότερα το 2017 ή στις αρχές του 2018. «Θα ήταν πολύ κοντόφθαλμο να σταματήσει η διαδικασία που θα μας έβγαζε από το πρόγραμμα, κάτι που είναι κοντά», είπε.

Ο κ. Τσακαλώτος απέρριψε πάντως τη θεωρία ότι το Βερολίνο αποφεύγει το θέμα του ελληνικού χρέους λόγω των επερχόμενων εκλογών. Η ελάφρυνση του χρέους δεν θα «μεταφραζόταν» σε σημαντικό κόστος για τον μέσο ψηφοφόρο στο Αμβούργο, σημείωσε. Όπως είπε χαρακτηριστικά , η Γερμανία δείχνει μια έλλειψη εμπιστοσύνης στην αποφασιστικότητα της Ελλάδας να συνεχίσει τις μεταρρυθμίσεις, εάν επιτύχει την ελάφρυνση χρέους. «Σε κάποιο στάδιο μίας σχέσης, πρέπει να εμπιστευτείς τον άλλον, διότι η έλλειψη εμπιστοσύνης έχει τεράστιες συνέπειες».

Η αποτυχία να υπάρξει ένα «ενάρετος κύκλος» ανάκαμψης, στον οποίον θα δοθεί ώθηση από την ελάφρυνση χρέους, την εμπιστοσύνη των επενδυτών και την αγορά ομολόγων από την ΕΚΤ, θα μπορούσε να θέσει σε κίνδυνο την ικανότητα της Ελλάδας να βγει από το πρόγραμμα διάσωσης σύμφωνα με τον σχεδιασμό, «κάτι που θα είναι μειονέκτημα τόσο για εμάς όσο και για τους πιστωτές», δήλωσε ο κ. Τσακαλώτος.

Ο κ.Τσακαλώτος σημείωσε ότι ο συνδυασμός της ελάφρυνσης χρέους, της αγοράς ομολόγων από την ΕΚΤ και της ανάκαμψης, θα έδιναν τη δυνατότητα στην Ελλάδα να αρχίσει και πάλι να εκδίδει ομόλογα στα τέλη του 2017 ή τις αρχές του 2018, προτού λήξει το πρόγραμμα επώδυνο διάσωσης το καλοκαίρι του 2018.

Ο έλληνας υπουργός Οικονομικων επέκρινε το ΔΝΤ για τις πιέσεις που ασκεί στην Ελλάδα να σφίξει κι άλλο το δημοσιονομικό ζωνάρι, αντί να βοηθά τη χώρα να πάρει κάποια ανάσα με τη βοήθεια της ελάφρυνσης χρέους –κάτι που και το ΔΝΤ επιθυμεί. Είπε πως οι διαπραγματεύσεις της Ελλάδας χρειάζονται μια διαφορετική σειρά, με την ελάφρυνση χρέους και τους στόχους για τη λιτότητα να γίνονται αντικείμενο επεξεργασίας από κοινού.

Ο κ. Τσακαλώτος εξέφρασε την ελπίδα ότι η Ευρώπη θα συνεχίσει να ακούει τον απερχόμενο αμερικανό πρόεδρο, σχολιάζοντας πως η άνοδος του λαϊκισμού στις χώρες της Δύσης –επιτομή του οποίου υπήρξε η εκλογική νίκη του Ντόναλντ Τραμπ- αποτελεί προειδοποίηση για τα κεντροαριστερά κόμματα της Ευρώπης.

Η αριστερά πρέπει να προσδιορίσει «μια ατζέντα ώστε ο κόσμος να μπορέσει να δει τη θέση του σε μια πιο παγκοσμιοποιημένη οικονομία». Κατά τον ίδιο, τα κεντροαριστερά κόμματα, όπως ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, δεν αντέδρασαν πολύ καλά στην ευρεία οικονομική ανασφάλεια πολλών ψηφοφόρων της εργατικής και της μεσαίας τάξης, εν μέσω των ταχύτατων οικονομικών αλλαγών.

ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ
 

Το κείμενο της συνέντευξης στη Wall Street Journal:

Greek Finance Minister Urges Quick Deal on Debt Relief

Euclid Tsakalotos, in an interview, says failure to act would threaten his country’s hopes of recovery

ATHENS—Greece’s finance minister warned Germany and other creditors to agree on a debt restructuring in coming weeks, or miss the best chance to bring his struggling country’s seven-year crisis to an end.

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos’s comments, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, came a day after U.S. President Barack Obama visited Athens, where he backed calls for Greek debt relief. Mr. Obama continued his European trip in Berlin on Thursday.

German leaders including finance chief Wolfgang Schäuble have said Greece’s debt can be addressed at a later date. Mr. Tsakalotos, however, warned that procrastination could undermine the country’s hopes of recovery in 2017, and that the coming weeks offer an important opportunity for the eurozone to show it can fix, rather than avoid, its problems.

“If we kick the can down the road and say ‘we will decide in two years’” about how to make Greece’s debt sustainable, then investors will also postpone decisions about investing in Greece, said Mr. Tsakalotos, a leading figure in Greece’s ruling left-wing Syriza party.

Amid rising political populism in Europe, the eurozone will only survive if it persuades voters it can solve its long-festering challenges, Mr. Tsakalotos said. “If it just postpones political decisions…then people will say it’s not working.”

Greece is approaching crucial weeks in negotiations with its creditors, the German-led eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. Athens is trying to show lenders that it is carrying out all of its agreed economic overhauls, including labor-market reforms and privatizations, and now deserves a restructuring of its mountain of bailout loans that would allow it to run smaller budget surpluses in the future.

Making Greece’s debt sustainable would also facilitate the country’s inclusion in the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program, the ECB has indicated—a step that Mr. Tsakalotos believes could happen by March 2017 and help to unlock a long-awaited economic recovery.

Urgent action is vital, he argued. No debt-relief agreement in December or January would mean no inclusion in the ECB’s program by March, Mr. Tsakalotos said. And that would prevent the country from returning to bond markets later in 2017 or early 2018. “It would be very short-sighted to stop the process that would bring us out of the program, which is within reach,” he said.

Germany and the IMF have been squabbling all year about when, and how specifically, to restructure Greece’s massive loans. Mr. Schäuble and other German officials are resistant to restructuring, except for minor tweaks, before Athens completes its tough program of economic reforms in 2018.

The IMF wants Europe to radically extend the lifetimes of Greece’s rescue loans, and to lock in the country’s interest rates at their currently low levels, in order to remove uncertainty over its future funding costs. Mr. Schäuble has said the issue can wait.

Mr. Tsakalotos rejected the theory that Berlin is avoiding the Greek debt issue because of German elections next year. Debt relief wouldn’t translate into a noticeable cost for the average voter in Hamburg, Mr. Tsakalotos suggested. Rather, he said, Germany was displaying a lack of trust in Greece’s determination to continue with reforms if it gets debt relief. “At some stage in the relationship you have to trust the other person, because there are huge costs to lack to trust,” he said.

Failure to bring about the “virtuous circle” of a recovery boosted by debt relief, investor confidence, and ECB bond-buying, he said, could jeopardize Greece’s ability to exit its bailout as planned—“to the disadvantage of both us and our creditors.”

Greece’s economy is currently in a weak recovery, after losing about a quarter of its output and jobs since the financial crisis began. The country is the last in the eurozone that is still unable to fund itself on bond markets and relies on bailout loans.

Mr. Tsakalotos said that the combination of debt relief, ECB bond-buying and recovery could allow Greece to resume bond issuance in late 2017 or early 2018, before leaving its painful bailout era behind it from summer 2018.

Mr. Tsakalotos, an Oxford-educated Marxist economist who is viewed by Greece’s creditors as one of Syriza’s more pragmatic interlocutors, criticized the IMF for pressuring Greece to tighten its fiscal belt even further, rather than helping it find some breathing space with help from debt relief—which the IMF also wants. He said Greece’s negotiations needed a different sequence, with debt relief and austerity goals being worked out together.

Speaking just after the visit to Athens by Mr. Obama, Mr. Tsakalotos said he hoped Europe would continue to listen to the outgoing American leader, whose term ends in January.

The rise of populists in Western countries, epitomized by Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election last week, is a warning to Europe’s left-of-center parties, Mr. Tsakalotos said.

The left needs to define “an agenda so that people can see their place in a more globalized world economy,” he said. Left-of-center parties such as Syriza have been “rather poor in responding” to the widespread economic insecurity of many working and middle-class voters in the face of rapid economic change, he said

 


Greek Minister Tsakalotos Says Debt Deal Delay Hurts Greece: Interview Transcript



 

Greece’s finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos believes Greece has a good chance of escaping its seemingly endless debt crisis by 2018 – provided it gets a helping hand in coming months from Germany over debt relief, the International Monetary Fund over austerity, and the European Central Bank on bond-buying. If the eurozone continues to delay the resolution of festering problems such as the Greek debt question, then more voters will conclude that Europe’s existing political order isn’t working, he argued. He said the rise of anti-establishment populism in Western countries is partly the fault of left-of-center parties such as his own Syriza movement. The left and center-left, he said, need to formulate a new program that promotes the prosperity and security of working and middle-class voters in a globalized economy. Here is an abridged transcript of his conversation with Journal reporters Nektaria Stamouli and Marcus Walker in Athens on Thursday.

WSJ: Are we watching the beginning of the end of the West?

Euclid Tsakalotos: I grew up in Britain with the pendulum theory of politics. Things swing back and forward. I think there has been a move away from liberal democratic values in a number of countries in Europe and outside Europe. That’s partly the fault of the center-left and the left. They haven’t really articulated a program that addresses the concerns of voters – an agenda so that people can see their place in a more globalized world economy.

If you think about the promise of globalization in the years of Blair and Clinton, it was that only people in old industries like textiles or steel have something to worry about. But it became very obvious that in fact many middle class people had a lot to worry about. There is a threat to wages and prosperity and security that is more widespread and I think that the center, the center left, and the left have been actually rather poor in responding to that.

So the answer to your question is no.

WSJ: What is the new balance of forces for Greece? With the rise in populism in Europe, Germany is reluctant to give debt relief.

ET: If they don’t give debt relief it will be very short-sighted of them. If the eurozone is going to survive, the number-one requirement is to make sure people see that the eurozone can solve its problems. If it just postpones political decisions and kicks the can down the road, then people will say it’s not working.

Greece doesn’t want the postponement of the debt issue, because Greece thinks that if we kick the can down the road and say “we will decide in two years,” then the investment community will say “well, we will decide in two years.” So we won’t have this clear runway for how we’re going to get out of this (bailout) program in 2018.

WSJ: Does Obama’s reference to the Greek debt make any difference?

ET: I sincerely hope so, we shall have to see. He is a very prestigious politician, he is very popular in Europe.

WSJ: But he has been calling for debt relief for many years and now he is on his way out.

ET: Would his influence be stronger if Clinton has won? The answer is yes. Does he now have no influence? The answer is no.

WSJ: Where does Greece stand on its path out of the crisis?

ET: We have done an immense amount of reforms, and I think that is accepted by anybody who actually looks at it. Our situation now is we are very close to finishing the second review, and I think that the pressure will be on the Eurogroup members to accept that it’s our turn to have a clear runway out of the crisis.

Our goal is to leave the program in 2018. Let me tell you how you won’t get that, to the disadvantage of both us and our creditors. No debt relief means no [Quantitative Easing]. No QE means no access to the markets in late 2017, early 2018. It would be very short-sighted to stop the process that would bring us out of the program, which is within reach.

And I would say that reducing the fiscal surpluses post 2018, let’s say from 3.5% to 2.5%, doesn’t translate to very much cost, if at all, for the man outside Lidl in Hamburg. For such a small ask, to put at risk Greece’s ability to leave the program doesn’t seem sensible.

WSJ: Is the problem a reluctance to talk about the debt before the German elections?

ET: That would be the case if, in fact, doing more on debt relief does translate very much to a cost for the man or woman in Hamburg. But if I’m right and it doesn’t, then it must be about a lack of trust in us, if the creditors give in on debt. And that’s what I suspect was behind yesterday’s statement by Wolfgang Schäuble that it would be a disservice to Greece if to give them some debt relief, because then Greece would stop doing reforms.

My own view is that at some stage in the relationship you have to trust the other person, because there are huge costs to lack of trust.

We actually need some fiscal space, because our creditors should be the first to recognize that we are overtaxing businesses. So we are shooting ourselves in the foot by not having some debt relief that would give us some fiscal space to be able to alleviate the burden on especially small businesses. That’s not going back to the bad old ways; that is creating a development path for Greece to grow out of the crisis.

WSJ: What are the toughest issues in the review?

ET: There is a difficulty with the IMF not being as helpful as it could on the sequence. It sometimes gives the impression that it puts more pressure on Greece than it does to the European partners to do debt relief.

We say that the debt and the fiscal targets should be discussed together. If the fiscal targets are going to be discussed first, then debt relief is going to be the residual, and that is music to the ears of those countries that don’t really want to give much debt relief. So we are trying to convince the IMF that we should hold back on that (fiscal) conversation and have it a package with debt relief.

The (other) main difficult issue is the labor market, where we have both economic evidence and best European practice on our side. We don’t want to increase the amount of people you can dismiss in large firms. First we don’t have many large firms and second it’s not the case that employment-protection legislation affects the equilibrium level of unemployment. You employ more on the upswing and you lay off more in the downswing; the average level of employment remains the same.

Also this is an identity question for the left. This is a decision about the power of capital and labor in society, and you cannot weaken labor further, especially when there is 25% unemployment. It is completely unacceptable for a left-wing government. And it nicely brings us back to your first question, if the workers do not that they are participating in the benefits of growth and we will get a lot of more right-wing populists. If Greece is going to survive and come out of this crisis with some kind of social consensus, then in the upswing the working class and middle class must feel that they are participating. It’s can’t be that they have made sacrifices and now all the benefits will be going to capital.

WSJ: Would you prefer IMF in or out (of the bailout program)?

ET: My first preference is IMF in, my second preference is IMF out, my worst outcome is no decision. Because this no-decision is costing Greece through uncertainty and investors don’t know what’s going on. So what I do want is a decision, I want it to be sorted out, I don’t want them to say we will decide next summer, next Christmas or even later.

WSJ: Would an agreement on the so-called “short-term” debt measures be enough to remove the uncertainty?

 ET: No I don’t think it would be enough, it will be more than I initially estimated, but not enough to unleash the virtuous circle.

WSJ: When do you think Syriza might call elections?

ET: Unless the worst scenario (on debt and recovery) comes about, I can’t see Syriza going to elections in 2017. I can’t see any reason, economically and politically, to do so. There was a lot of skepticism over whether we could close the first review, there is a lot of skepticism about whether we can close the second review, whether we can get into QE, and whether we will return to growth. If all these things happen, then the political climate this time next year will be very different.

​Εδώ η συνέντευξη υπό τη μορφή ερωταπαντήσεων ​

Q&A 

http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2016/11/18/greek-minister-tsakalotos-says-debt-deal-delay-hurts-greece-interview-transcript/


 

​Εδώ η συνέντευξη στην έντυπη έκδοση

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-finance-minister-urges-quick-deal-on-debt-relief-1479419740


 

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